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So what’s next in Syria? It’s more likely than not that Congress will approve a limited military strike  and that the ensuing intervention will prove to be limited. If Congress rejects the president’s call for a military strike, it will set a dangerous precedent on American red lines and undermine the United States’ credibility in advance of possible talks. If Obama’s proposal does pass and the U.S. strikes, the administration must prepare for the risk that Iran will respond with escalatory asymmetric attacks, and it must ensure that any fallout from Syria does not scuttle upcoming nuclear negotiations.

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