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For quite some time I’ve been saying in various places that in Pakistan there are several centres of power – the civilian government, the army, the intelligence, and the terrorist outfits (for whom Zardari invented the phrase ‘non-state actors’). Surely I am not revealing a state secret if I say, as Manmohan Singh has just said too, that Pakistan remains the epicentre of terrorism. For about 25 years post-Zia governments in Pakistan have been using terrorism as an instrument of state policy through the army and the intelligence. In short, the foursome have been all pulling in the same direction, whether it was Afghanistan, Kashmir, or the rest of India. It is possible to concede that lately some of the terrorists are not quite under the control of their handlers (the army and the intelligence). But still quite a large number of terrorists remain within the control of the army and the intelligence. It is hopeless for Nawaz Sharif to pretend, then, that 40,000 Pakistani lives have been lost to terrorism. If that many lives have been lost, then most of them would have been targets of Pakistan’s home-grown terrorists. Terrorism has been a tiger that Pakistan has been riding for 25 years and now when Pakistan perhaps wants to dismount the tiger is turning on its erstwhile rider. Lots of people, including yours truly, have been saying for an age that in using terrorism as an instrument of state policy Pakistan was riding a tiger and that its test would come when the rider attempted to dismount. Read my earlier comments in newspapers around the world over several years past and the writings of scores of others who have written on the subject. You will find dire forecast spelt out there rather starkly. It was disingenuous of Nawaz Sharif to attempt to mislead the entire world by his prime ministerial speech to UNGA but this is not going to wash with those who have been studying these questions for years, as I have been from the evening of 9/11 (2001). It may be a cliché but it is worth repeating that you can deceive some people for some time but you cannot deceive all the people all the time. Sooner or later truth will catch up with Pakistan. If Nawaz Sharif does not act while there is still time, then he should see the writing on the wall: complete collapse of Pakistan as a State – in spite of all kinds of help and support from WB, IMF, US, EU, and China. For the present it is also true that Nawaz Sharif is not quite in control and that real power vests in the army and the intelligence. That’s another complication that Pakistanis will have to sort out – if they want to survive. V. C. Bhutani, Delhi, 29 Sep 2013, 1540 IST
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